Risk Prioritization in Road Rehabilitation Projects Using a Schedule-Integrated Matrix Approach

Abstract

Road rehabilitation projects are crucial for maintaining transportation network functionality; however, they are frequently exposed to schedule delays and cost overruns due to technical complexity, site dependency, and constrained implementation periods. Although previous studies have applied probabilistic simulations and multicriteria decision-making models for construction risk assessment, such approaches often require advanced tools and extensive data, limiting their practical application at the planning stage. This study aims to develop and apply a schedule-based risk matrix approach that integrates project schedule characteristics and cost-weighted activity data to prioritize implementation risks. The research adopts a descriptive–analytical design using secondary data derived from initial contract documents, including the implementation schedule and cost distribution of major work items. Risk likelihood is assessed based on schedule attributes, while impact is determined from the relative cost weight of each activity; risk levels are calculated using a probability–impact matrix. The results indicate that risk exposure is concentrated in high-value and long-duration activities, with structural concrete work classified as extreme risk, non-structural concrete and aggregate base course works categorized as high risk, and reinforcement steel and earthworks identified as medium risk. These findings suggest that integrating schedule and cost data into a structured risk matrix provides a transparent, practical tool for early-stage risk prioritization in road rehabilitation projects.